Our sun is a violent place. Bursts of radiation snap off the solar surface with the strength of millions of volcanic eruptions. Hot plasma churns and spewsjb casino, streaming particles that can harm astronauts and satellites in space and damage electrical systems on the ground. They can also brighten up our skies with colorful lights.

But scientists have observed even bigger explosions with the power of a trillion hydrogen bombs from other stars that they call superflares. And while a superflare has yet to be observed from our own sun, astronomers wonder if it is capable of such an extremity, and if so, when one might occur.

A paper published in the journal Science on Thursday offers more insight. Researchers determined that stars similar to the sun generate superflares roughly once a century, a rate much higher than expected. The findings suggest that we could be due for an extraordinarily powerful solar event sooner rather than later.

“We are in the space age,” said Yuta Notsu, an astrophysicist at the University of Colorado Boulder and an author of the paper. “So I think it’s good to estimate low-probability but large-impact events,” which can help space weather experts better quantify any potential risk posed to our planet, he said.

Solar flares occur when the sun’s magnetic field twists and snaps, sending a burst of energy, often accompanied by an outflow of charged particles, into space. If these particles interact with Earth’s atmosphere, evidence of the event can end up nestled in tree rings or ice cores.

But particles aren’t always ejected, nor are those events always directed toward Earth, making it difficult for scientists to draw conclusions about the sun’s behavior from natural records. A better method, according to Valeriy Vasilyev, an astronomer at the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research in Germany who led the study, is to look at stars in the Milky Way that behave like our own sun.

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Speaking in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, where Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight edge in recent polls, Mr. Trump bristled at the notion that his struggles with women voters could cost him the election and suggested that his tough talk about immigration and economic proposals would resonate with them.

Such a scenario would represent a notable degree of ticket-splitting, perpetuating a trend captured by surveys throughout this election cycle. Democratic Senate candidates in a number of swing states, including Arizona and Nevada, have consistently polled ahead of the top of the ticket, especially when President Biden was the party’s standard-bearer. As Ms. Harris’s nomination has made the election more competitive, the gap between her and those down-ballot Democrats has narrowed — but the trend persists in most races in swing states.

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